For the most part, every NBA team tends to have steady ebbs and flows of success. Organizations rarely dominate the league or dwell in disparity for extended periods. Rather than reaching massive heights or being consistently terrible, the Atlanta Hawks have basically wallowed in mediocrity during the Trae Young era. Since drafting their franchise cornerstone in 2018, the Hawks have gone 210-257 (183-224 when he plays). While Young doesn’t deserve all the blame, there are legitimate questions regarding his ability to be a focal point for a contender. Unfortunately, the 2020-2021 Eastern Conference Finals feels more like a fluke with each passing year. No team featuring Young has ever been good defensively, and that’s probably being generous.
However, there’s no disputing his ability to put up massive offensive numbers. Over six seasons, Young is averaging 25.5 PPG, 9.5 APG, 3.6 RPG, and 1.0 SPG with 43.6/35.5/87.3 shooting splits. Exclude his rookie year, and the production is even greater. Sometimes, it feels like his scoring prowess is so strong that his elite playmaking often goes overlooked. Young is currently the active leader in assists per game at 9.50. This figure also places him fourth on the all-time list, directly ahead of Chris Paul (9.35) and behind Oscar Robertson (9.51). This level of unique offensive ability puts the Hawks in a challenging position. He’s clearly a special offensive talent, but what is Atlanta’s path to a title? Young turns 26 next month with three years left on a max contract. While it’s difficult to envision a scenario where they don’t at least attempt to resign him to another lucrative deal, some tough decisions will need to be made over these next few seasons.
In defense of Young, it’s unclear if the front office has actually bolstered the team in any way. The Dejounte Murray experiment was a disaster. Between John Collins, Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sadiq Bey, Onyeka Okongwu, and Deandre Hunter, the Hawks haven’t possessed an overabundance of talent during this era. Even though he’s shown a ton of promise, the fact that Jalen Johnson has a real chance to be the best player in that group speaks volumes.
However, there seems to be some sense of optimism. Newly appointed GM Landry Fields has wasted no time making deals. Flipping Murray for Dyson Daniels and a bunch of stuff (EJ Liddell, Cody Zeller, Larry Nance Jr.) feels like a pure stylistic move. The 2025 first-round pick (via Lakers) is likely the second-most valuable asset headed to the Hawks. Daniels is a nice young piece due for an uptick in minutes, so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs in a primary role. However, where the Lakers’ pick falls will ultimately determine the final worth of this trade. If they can land a top pick and draft a blue-chip asset, all these concerns could be dissolved soon enough.
While that trade could become a massive win, giving up on AJ Griffin and swapping him for Nikola Djurisic (in a three-team deal) is a head-scratcher. The 21-year-old Griffin showed a lot of flashes as a rookie before losing most of his opportunities to Johnson. There was some overlap with the Bogdanovic-Hunter-Griffin-Johnson grouping but, surprisingly, Griffin (a 39% three-point shooter as a rookie) had such little value on the open market.
After drafting Zaccharie Risacher and letting Bey walk in free agency, the Hawks’ rotation will include Young, Daniels, Johnson, Bogdanovic, Risacher, Okongwu, Hunter, and Capela (a likely trade candidate on an expiring contract). Though it doesn’t seem like they’ll contend for a title next season, it might be the right time to tank for a high draft pick. The short-term outlook might be bleak, but there’s no telling how things will unfold going forward. Can Atlanta find prolonged success under the leadership of Young or will they be forced to start from scratch?