As we inch closer to NBA All-Star Weekend, a lot of the attention has gradually shifted from nightly competition to the upcoming draft. In what should be considered one of the most talented drafts ever, there is constant discussion and debate surrounding who should get selected first overall. While it goes without saying, the trio of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cam Boozer have been atop draft boards all season long. The crazy thing? There might be five or more All-Stars taken after this grouping. That being said, let’s take a closer look at each of those three, highlighting one per day, starting with Dybantsa…
It’s genuinely shocking to see how much debate is surrounding a guy who has maintained his status as the top player in the country since middle school. It’s understood that “being the best player in the gym” for your entire amateur career doesn’t guarantee long-term success. However, the way Dybantsa consistently dominated is what warranted such high praise. He already moves like a real professional, both on and off the court. The combination of natural gifts, work ethic, and translatable array of tools is simply unfair. Although we will look past his long list of accolades, he essentially checked every box prior to joining BYU.
Fast-forward to now, and Dybantsa continues to stand out as an absolute force. Although it initially took him a week or so, he started to aggressively take over games. This season, Dybantsa is averaging 23.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.5 BPG with 53/32/76 splits. There are plenty of ways to use numbers and metrics to create an agenda or argument for a preferred player, so we will start with basic comparisons. Dybantsa is one of only eight players (since 2002-03) to average at least 23 PPG, 6 RPG, and 3 APG. Other than Randy Onwuasor, he and Cam Boozer are the only players to reach these marks since 2009, and only freshmen to ever do so. Taking it a step further, Dybantsa is the only freshman ever to average 23 PPG with a free-throw rate of .560 or higher (playing 470 minutes or more).
Zooming out for a moment, let’s theorize how each of these players will look upon entering the NBA. At 6-foot-9, Dybantsa is a prototypical do-it-all wing. It’s unclear how folks can watch the way he dominates and not see the vision. Even if you prefer other prospects, the appeal should be obvious. He’s able to effortlessly operate as a primary offensive weapon, both as an on-ball creator and a capable off-ball threat. Due to his size, fluidity, and refined skillset, Dybantsa can legitimately get any shot he wants at any time he desires. He glides to his spots off the bounce while highlighting exceptional footwork and shot-making ability. Dybantsa’s only real knock is that he isn’t an elite three-point shooter right now. Mechanically, everything appears fine. The misses seem to be more indicative of rhythm. It’s also worth noting that his slump over the last five games (25%) dipped his three-point percentage from 35% to 32% on the year. It’s not a glaring issue, and certainly not something that should deter teams from taking him first overall. Furthermore, Dybantsa already has a firm understanding of himself as a player. He doesn’t try to be someone or something he’s not. Regardless of what team has the first choice in the upcoming draft, it feels like Dybantsa has the highest likelihood to be a franchise-altering star.