Flagg First, Harper Second
There were no surprises between Dallas and San Antonio, as the only two “locks” in the draft were taken off the board with the first two selections. Even if we look back in five or ten years and see others surpass Flagg or Harper, these were still the correct choices.
The 18-year-old Flagg is coming off one of the most dominant college seasons in history, especially for a freshman. He’s going to a nearly perfect situation in Dallas. Despite injury concerns surrounding Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis, Flagg will be able to actually find his footing rather than being thrust into the fire like most first overall picks. Being in a position where he can be a third star instead of the primary option should allow him to flourish. That being said, Flagg seems to be somewhat polarizing. No one sees him becoming a bust, but there’s no guarantee he’ll ever be a top-five or top-ten player in the NBA. Totally fine. Flagg’s versatility as a creator, defender, and scorer will make him legitimately impactful as a rookie and thereafter. Since 1980-81, Flagg is one of only 11 players who met the following parameters in the same season: 50 blocks, 50 steals, and 38% from three (on at least 90 attempts). The other ten are Shane Battier (x2), Kevin Durant, Danny Green, Wesley Johnson, Robert Horry, Danny Granger, Jalen Slawson, Isaiah Crawford, and Jerry Stackhouse. While it’s unclear if he’ll ever be a franchise cornerstone, Flagg certainly has the makings of an All-Star caliber player.
Meanwhile, the 18-year-old Harper goes to the League’s most exciting young team in San Antonio. The fit beside both De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle is obviously not ideal, so it’ll be interesting to see how things unfold for the Spurs going into next season. Assuming all three remain on the roster, Harper will figure it out. He’s an intelligent playmaker with the pace, size, and handle to consistently make plays with the ball in his hands. Harper isn’t considered an elite shooter off the bounce, but his ability to attack the rim and hit jumpers at a high clip off the catch will make him an asset. While it’ll be interesting to see if he ever reaches All-Star status, Harper is a true professional who will be a difference-maker in the NBA for a long time.
The Uncertainty Begins
After the two most predictable selections of the night, things began to shake up. Philadelphia took VJ Edgecombe third, Charlotte drafted Kon Knueppel fourth, and Utah chose Ace Bailey fifth. The available prospects clearly dropped down a tier, so this range is a perfect time for teams to swing for the fences or add high-floor players to rosters with stars already in place.
Edgecombe is a nice pick. It probably doesn’t excite 76ers fans, but he’s the type of tough, explosive two-way guard who will last for a long time. It’s unlikely that he’ll ever be an All-Star or even the best guard on his team, which is why his fit with Philadelphia makes sense. Edgecombe can be an amazing complementary piece to Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain. He offers a different dynamic as a change-of-pace guard whose downhill ability and defensive prowess will make him a meaningful piece.
Many people correctly predicted the Hornets would go with Knueppel. Although it’s an unsexy choice, it’s probably what Charlotte needed to do. His combination of shooting and multi-positional flexibility on both ends of the floor makes him one of the most malleable players in the draft. Knueppel is unique in his ability to legitimately find success alongside any collection of teammates. Joining a young, largely immature roster that desperately needs guys who are committed to winning, he should be a seamless fit.
After being told to *not* draft Bailey, the Jazz decide to do whatever they want. Although his camp is giving him awful advice at basically every turn, Bailey seems like a young kid who might just be immature or misguided. However, the talent and overall appeal are obvious. He arguably possesses as much potential as anyone outside of the top two picks, but is the upside attainable? Regardless, he’s an explosive shot-maker with enticing physical tools and incredible flashes on both ends of the floor. Danny Ainge hasn’t been shy about going out on a limb or against the grain, so perhaps Bailey will blossom in Utah.