After last night’s 26 point outburst against Austin Peay, Nesmith is averaging 26.5 points per game through his first four games of the season.
This should come as no surprise to anyone who followed Nesmith in high school. After all, he was the South Carolina Gatorade Player of the Year his senior season, over Zion Williamson.
However, what is very impressive with Nesmith this season is the efficiency with which he is scoring the ball. He is shooting 61.3% from the field and 55.3% from beyond the arc.
For the advanced analytics people, Nesmith is currently showing an Offensive Box Plus/Minus at 8.1 while his Offensive Rating is 136.3. For those who are not analytics people, Offensive Box Plus/Minus evaluates a players contribution to the team, per 100 possessions, where this player stacks up to league average. Offensive Rating measures a player’s efficiency at producing points for the offense.
To further this analytical point, and taking a look at last season, to let you know where Nesmith’s advanced stats lie, Zion Williams led the NCAA in Offensive Rating, for players averaging over 30 minutes per game, last season at 133.1, Nesmith is currently at 136.3. There were only 9 players last season who finished with Offensive Box Plus/Minus higher than Nesmith’s 8.1, those names included Grant Williams, Zion Williamson, Chris Clemons, Cassius Winston and Myles Powell. Sure we understand this is a much smaller sample size, but this is the company Nesmith is keeping.
Nesmith stands 6’6″ with a measured 6’11” wingspan. Looking at the back end of things, it’s a wonder how Nesmith is flying this far under the radar. He is currently coached at Vanderbilt by 17 year NBA player and 2x NBA All-Star wing Jerry Stackhouse. He was also mentored growing up (still is) by 2019 NBA All-Star wing Khris Middleton. It was in the stars for Nesmith to succeed as an NBA caliber wing, with that type of pedigree.
In doing some research on what people are talking about in NBA terms with Aaron Nesmith, we came across this piece by Ben Rubin of The Stepien titled “Aaron Nesmith is More than Just a Guy”. What we want to highlight here is the statistical analysis Rubin brings up as he compared Nesmith’s stats and physical ability to that of Gordon Hayward and Jimmy Butler in college, as they two were both “prospects with upside who when unseen by most.”
Rubin highlighted Butler, Hayward, and Nesmith across 18 categories; height, weight, true shooting attempts, 2PA per 40, 3PA per 40, 3P%, FTA per 40, FTA:2PA, FT%, true shooting %, Boards per 40, assists per 40, steals per 40, TO’s per 40 and points per 40. In every category, Nesmith posted similar numbers his freshman year to what Butler and Hayward did for their college careers, except for two-pointers attempted and free throws attempted.
In diving a bit deeper, looking at Nesmith’s feel for the game compared to the other two (adding in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, assists to turnovers, Harmonic assists, stocks and feel score). Comparing Nesmith’s feel numbers his freshman season, to Gordon Hayward and Jimmy Butler’s career numbers, Rubin found, “In terms of feel of the game, the numbers suggest Nesmith is pretty advanced.”
Nesmith is currently being talked about as a mid-tier second-rounder, however, looking at his numbers, his advanced stats, his background, and physical makeup, it is clear if he continues on this pace, we are talking about a first-round draft pick. Take a look for yourself, but for sure, keep Nesmith on your radar, not many are talking about him, yet…